by Stephen Sigmund (Mr. Sigmund is a public affairs consultant and a graduate of Tulane’s School of Arts and Sciences, Cum Laude, 1992)
On election night, I was part of a panel for Tulane’s Masters in Public Administration program. I was asked for insights into the results. At the time, around 9pm Central, my answer was I had no real idea, as this year’s ballot counting was so different than in prior elections.
We now know that Joe Biden won, but it was a close election. Yes, he will capture 306 electoral votes and win the national vote by more than 5 million. But the margins in the states that determined the election were razor thin.
So, what does that say about the two candidates? Were Democrats wrong to have nominated a more moderate candidate rather than a firebrand or new face who could match the enthusiasm of Trump voters? Did Donald Trump have the right strategy by doubling and tripling down on his base?
The results say what they have long said about Presidential elections in the United States. They are won from the center, and the center in this case, held.
Let's look at the facts. Despite COVID, Donald Trump was an incumbent president who had presided over a strong economy (which monthly unemployment and quarterly growth numbers told voters was recovering during the campaign). On the key question for an incumbent of "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" only 20% of exit poll voters said they were "worse off." And Trump clearly had enormous enthusiasm from his supporters.
In that environment, history tells us he should have won re-election.
But he didn't. And he didn't in large part because Joe Biden managed the political high wire act of turning out the progressive Democratic base, and turning independents in suburbs and exurbs in key states in his direction.
How? By deftly sticking to the middle.
Two defining issues of the campaign are illustrative examples.
First, the calls by progressives to “Defund the Police" and the general unrest around racial justice issues. Republicans tried to paint Biden as the anti-law and order candidate who would unleash lawlessness on suburban streets.
But Biden had to take care in how to respond. “Racial Inequality” was the top voting issue for a full 21% of voters who were exit polled, the 2nd most important issue to all voters behind the economy.
So Biden needed both to keep and motivate that very large percentage to his side, and reassure independent voters worried about the message "Defund the police" was sending. And he did so, over and over again. He quickly, and repeatedly, declared he was against "Defund the police,” but he always wrapped those statements in the recognition of systemic racism and the need for greater racial justice, particularly in criminal justice.
His answer to Donald Trump’s assertion in the first debate that Biden “won’t even say the words law and order” is a case in point.
“Are you in favor of law and order?” the president asked.
“Yes, I’m in favor of law and order,” Biden responded. “Law and order with justice, where people get treated fairly.” (Radio.com, 9/29/20)
Donald Trump's messaging on COVID was the opposite. Crises offer opportunities, and COVID gave the President a re-set opportunity to unify, and reach out to those who had opposed his job performance throughout his term simply by calling on Americans to stand together to defeat the pandemic. He chose instead to stick to his base strategy, repeating that he was doing a "great job" on COVID and it would soon be over.
While his economic messaging on COVID seemed in the end to be effective, the notion that the pandemic was "rounding the corner" in the final days of the campaign flew in the face of the reality of the numbers, and more importantly in people’s experience.
Moreover, Trump would never have lost the enthusiasm of his voters had he had a more unifying message around COVID. They have been with him through thick and thin, and would have stayed that way. And he would have benefited exactly in the suburban and exurban swing state communities that ultimately made the difference.
The lesson to be learned from this election is that the center still matters, greatly, in a nation of 330 million people. Ultimately, it's where Presidents are made. In that regard, 2020 was no different.
